SARIMA: A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Crime Analysis in Saudi Arabia

Crimes have clearly had a detrimental impact on nation’s development, prosperity, reputation, and economy. The issue of crime has become one the most pressing concerns in societies, thus reducing rate an increasingly critical task. Recently, several studies been proposed to identify causes occurrences order ways reduce rates. However, few conducted Saudi Arabia technological solutions based analysis. analysis can help governments hotspots monitor distribution. This study aims investigate which Arabian areas will experience increased rates coming years. research helps law enforcement agencies effectively utilize available resources paper proposes SARIMA model focuses identifying factors that affect crimes Arabia, estimating reasonable rate, likelihood distribution various locations. dataset used this is obtained from official government channels. There detailed information related time place along with statistics pertaining different types crimes. Furthermore, new method performs better than other traditional classifiers such as Linear Regression, XGB, Random Forest. Finally, MAE score 0.066559, higher models.